Now you know I try to stay away from politics, but here's what I hate about politically themed blogs, no matter whether they're right-wing or left-wing: Not one of those people wants to admit there's a possibility that they could be wrong! These people rant and rave about the stupidity of the opposing party, and of course, that person's opinion is ALWAYS RIGHT!
It's the same with other topics as well. Raving atheists, for instance (notice I said "raving", not the quiet ones who state their opinion and then leave it alone). It's your business whether you believe in God or not, but if you're proselytizing and you won't even admit there's the slightest chance that you might be wrong, that bothers me.
Certain religious zealots are guilty of the same thing, this attitude that "I'm right and I know I am and I've never been wrong in my life, so you should think exactly like I do."
If we paid attention to people like that, we'd all be out there with Fred Phelps.
By the way, my opinion about politics is that no matter who's in office, we're pretty much out of luck. The economy stinks, our school systems are rotting. I don't blame it on any political party. I blame it on "we, the people". I have absolutely no hope for things improving in the United States of America. Sorry for the negativity, but that's the way I see it.
But I'm perfectly willing to admit that I could be wrong, about that, or any other subject.
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Friday, August 13, 2010
Political doublespeak, or sound reasoning?
I don't talk much about politics because it's a subject I choose not to think about. When I listen to television programs about politics, I end up confused and depressed. Listen to left-wingers on late-night shows, they seem to make sense. Listen to right-wingers, they make their points quite well. So mostly I choose to ignore the whole mess. On election day this coming November, Cliff and I have decided to just vote for anybody except the incumbents.
So I wasn't paying much attention when I heard something on the noon news while I was eating dinner that threw me for a loop; I think some guy said that our country is going to print more money (play money, in my opinion) in order to increase inflation. Right now inflation is only 1%, and we need to raise it to 2%. Because increased inflation will be a good thing.
I'm paraphrasing what I think I heard, but it honestly sounded crazy to me.
So I took it to the folks on my favorite message board. They may not be experts, but they do have opinions and answers.
This morning I found an explanation in answer to my question, courtesy of a guy who goes by the handle of "Matt from Ct.". I thought I'd share it with my readers, because at least now I understand it a little better.
Most money isn't printed, but it's created on paper...like every time social security "checks" are transferred electronically to banks.
We normally would be seeing very significant inflation, but the world economy sucks so much people still have MORE faith in the U.S. then any other industrialized nation in paying their debts, so they keep buying our Treasury notes at absurdly low rates which keeps interest rates down.
There's three states we can be in.
Prior to 1900, we had primarily steady prices. You could buy, say a house, in 1899 for about what you would've paid in 1799.
There were a few periods when prices shot up (Civil War) but then prices came down (Deflation). The period of 1873 -- 1896 was a long period of global financial doldrums, triggered by the deflation that was marked by the Panic of 1873.
It's not a coincidence that during that time the U.S. was politically volatile -- it wasn't unusual to see 1/3rd of the House change political parties every two years, and it's the period Cleveland won the Presidency, then lost, then won again. Politicians were just as corrupt, and capitalists just as bad at shooting themselves in the foot as today.
The first modern spurt of inflation was during WWI, then we had a deflationary cycle during the Great Depression and the rest of the 30s.
Post World War II we adopted a policy of looking for 2 to 3% annual inflation. This got away from us in the 1970s, but for the rest of the post war period it worked out pretty well.
See deflation is a bad thing for investors...and people. At 2% deflation, you have $100 in assets today, next year you can only sell them for $98. The year after $96.04. Why would you invest in anything? If you just kept it as cash, you'd have $100 still. Housing, farm land, build a factory, buy machine tools...all risky investments because you know they'll lose value rapidly. It also means your labor becomes less valuable.
Take a loan? Fuggadabout it.
Let's think of a 30 year fixed mortgage that's common today (although they weren't around in the 19th century).
$100,000 = $600/month @ 6%
You're making $30,000/year. Let's assume your skills and productivity don't improve to make the math easier.
2% Deflation, in 30 year's you're still paying $7,200/year on the mortgage. But the value of your labor has dropped to only $16,698. So over 30 years your housing cost has gone from 24% of your pay, to 43% of your pay. And the value of the house has dropped to only $55,000. See a problem? At least the mortgage is almost paid...
2% Inflation, the value of your labor will have gone up to $53,275. Hey this is pretty nice, I'm paying the mortgage with cheaper dollars so I'm only spending 13.5% of my pay on housing...and the house is now worth $177,000.
Banks don't care about the inflation, they just build it into the interest rate. Banks are terrified about deflation, because no sane person will take a loan in that environment. The economy grinds to a halt because the only store of value is cash...not investments in tangible assets.
Having stable prices would be OK too...but what the banks and federal government and all worry about is that gives you very little margin of error. A little slow down, and you see deflation. Inflated wages make it easier for folks to pay off big loans...no inflation those long-term loans become riskier and riskier. Which is why mortgages in the 19th Century, even many up until the end of WWII were for 5 or 10 years, who would take an insane risk like making a 30 year loan to a working man when there was a big risk of deflation, or simply knowing the longer the time the more chance of something making it harder for him to repay it?
So the powers to be like to see 3% or so annual inflation. It doesn't hurt consumers short term, tends to help us long term by letting us pay back loans the cheaper dollars, banks can easily compensate for low to mild inflation with a little bit higher but not crippling interest rates, and keeps money flowing into investments.
Sure what I put above is simplified, and there's always bad ways for things to go (like easy credit + two income middle class families creating a run up in housing prices well above natural inflation rates, which is a large part of our current economic hangover)...but a little bit of inflation is the best overall economic policy for our modern economy.
So I do understand the concept a little better.
Now if only somebody will explain to me why "the Fed" is not Federal, I could quit puzzling about politics and go back to my garden.
So I wasn't paying much attention when I heard something on the noon news while I was eating dinner that threw me for a loop; I think some guy said that our country is going to print more money (play money, in my opinion) in order to increase inflation. Right now inflation is only 1%, and we need to raise it to 2%. Because increased inflation will be a good thing.
I'm paraphrasing what I think I heard, but it honestly sounded crazy to me.
So I took it to the folks on my favorite message board. They may not be experts, but they do have opinions and answers.
This morning I found an explanation in answer to my question, courtesy of a guy who goes by the handle of "Matt from Ct.". I thought I'd share it with my readers, because at least now I understand it a little better.
Most money isn't printed, but it's created on paper...like every time social security "checks" are transferred electronically to banks.
We normally would be seeing very significant inflation, but the world economy sucks so much people still have MORE faith in the U.S. then any other industrialized nation in paying their debts, so they keep buying our Treasury notes at absurdly low rates which keeps interest rates down.
There's three states we can be in.
Prior to 1900, we had primarily steady prices. You could buy, say a house, in 1899 for about what you would've paid in 1799.
There were a few periods when prices shot up (Civil War) but then prices came down (Deflation). The period of 1873 -- 1896 was a long period of global financial doldrums, triggered by the deflation that was marked by the Panic of 1873.
It's not a coincidence that during that time the U.S. was politically volatile -- it wasn't unusual to see 1/3rd of the House change political parties every two years, and it's the period Cleveland won the Presidency, then lost, then won again. Politicians were just as corrupt, and capitalists just as bad at shooting themselves in the foot as today.
The first modern spurt of inflation was during WWI, then we had a deflationary cycle during the Great Depression and the rest of the 30s.
Post World War II we adopted a policy of looking for 2 to 3% annual inflation. This got away from us in the 1970s, but for the rest of the post war period it worked out pretty well.
See deflation is a bad thing for investors...and people. At 2% deflation, you have $100 in assets today, next year you can only sell them for $98. The year after $96.04. Why would you invest in anything? If you just kept it as cash, you'd have $100 still. Housing, farm land, build a factory, buy machine tools...all risky investments because you know they'll lose value rapidly. It also means your labor becomes less valuable.
Take a loan? Fuggadabout it.
Let's think of a 30 year fixed mortgage that's common today (although they weren't around in the 19th century).
$100,000 = $600/month @ 6%
You're making $30,000/year. Let's assume your skills and productivity don't improve to make the math easier.
2% Deflation, in 30 year's you're still paying $7,200/year on the mortgage. But the value of your labor has dropped to only $16,698. So over 30 years your housing cost has gone from 24% of your pay, to 43% of your pay. And the value of the house has dropped to only $55,000. See a problem? At least the mortgage is almost paid...
2% Inflation, the value of your labor will have gone up to $53,275. Hey this is pretty nice, I'm paying the mortgage with cheaper dollars so I'm only spending 13.5% of my pay on housing...and the house is now worth $177,000.
Banks don't care about the inflation, they just build it into the interest rate. Banks are terrified about deflation, because no sane person will take a loan in that environment. The economy grinds to a halt because the only store of value is cash...not investments in tangible assets.
Having stable prices would be OK too...but what the banks and federal government and all worry about is that gives you very little margin of error. A little slow down, and you see deflation. Inflated wages make it easier for folks to pay off big loans...no inflation those long-term loans become riskier and riskier. Which is why mortgages in the 19th Century, even many up until the end of WWII were for 5 or 10 years, who would take an insane risk like making a 30 year loan to a working man when there was a big risk of deflation, or simply knowing the longer the time the more chance of something making it harder for him to repay it?
So the powers to be like to see 3% or so annual inflation. It doesn't hurt consumers short term, tends to help us long term by letting us pay back loans the cheaper dollars, banks can easily compensate for low to mild inflation with a little bit higher but not crippling interest rates, and keeps money flowing into investments.
Sure what I put above is simplified, and there's always bad ways for things to go (like easy credit + two income middle class families creating a run up in housing prices well above natural inflation rates, which is a large part of our current economic hangover)...but a little bit of inflation is the best overall economic policy for our modern economy.
So I do understand the concept a little better.
Now if only somebody will explain to me why "the Fed" is not Federal, I could quit puzzling about politics and go back to my garden.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Oh brother
My phone doesn't ring often, because everyone knows I hate to talk on the phone. If you don't have some reason for calling me, don't bother.
So tonight I got a phone call from some lady who wanted me to listen to a recording of Newt Gingrich.
Folks, I'm right-wing. I'm Republican. I'm not ashamed to tell you that.
But if Newt Gingrich is going to be calling me on a regular basis, I could very easily switch parties.
Seriously.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Here's how I feel (a rant)
Let me get my politics out in the open here.
I'm a Republican. I didn't vote for President Obama. I was going to, but once I was in the booth I just couldn't. However, a few people who are REALLY close to me did vote for him, and that's great. This is America.
I have to say I'm very proud of my country today.
In the early- to mid-sixties I always watched the evening news, and I remember being so ashamed that there were human beings in this country who couldn't enter a public school without being spit on and yelled at, or worse... even killed. It bothered me that there were people who were welcome to work behind the counter at Woolworths with my mom, but weren't allowed to sit at that counter and eat. My mom didn't like it either. Nor my dad. I remember their conversations about it.
Today I watched a brown-skinned man take the oath of office. We've come a long way, baby. (I hate having to call people "black" when they're brown, so I don't.)
I'm bothered by things people are saying here and there; but I'm especially bothered by people who call themselves Christians who are saying so many negative things.
I hear them saying they're scared. All through the Bible I read the words, "Fear not". Why are you afraid, followers of Jesus?
You may not like this, but God is color-blind.
I hear people prophesying gloom and doom. What happened to your faith in God, Christians? Don't you see that God is big enough to use anyone? At a church I used to attend we often sang a song that said, "If You can use anyone, You can use me...". Well, if He can use me, He can surely use Barack Obama.
Why not wait and see what happens before you complain?
Pray for our president. Give him a chance.
But I do think Aretha should lose the hat.
(The very people who ran me off a message board are now having problems accepting certain opinions? What goes around, comes around.)
I'm a Republican. I didn't vote for President Obama. I was going to, but once I was in the booth I just couldn't. However, a few people who are REALLY close to me did vote for him, and that's great. This is America.
I have to say I'm very proud of my country today.
In the early- to mid-sixties I always watched the evening news, and I remember being so ashamed that there were human beings in this country who couldn't enter a public school without being spit on and yelled at, or worse... even killed. It bothered me that there were people who were welcome to work behind the counter at Woolworths with my mom, but weren't allowed to sit at that counter and eat. My mom didn't like it either. Nor my dad. I remember their conversations about it.
Today I watched a brown-skinned man take the oath of office. We've come a long way, baby. (I hate having to call people "black" when they're brown, so I don't.)
I'm bothered by things people are saying here and there; but I'm especially bothered by people who call themselves Christians who are saying so many negative things.
I hear them saying they're scared. All through the Bible I read the words, "Fear not". Why are you afraid, followers of Jesus?
You may not like this, but God is color-blind.
I hear people prophesying gloom and doom. What happened to your faith in God, Christians? Don't you see that God is big enough to use anyone? At a church I used to attend we often sang a song that said, "If You can use anyone, You can use me...". Well, if He can use me, He can surely use Barack Obama.
Why not wait and see what happens before you complain?
Pray for our president. Give him a chance.
But I do think Aretha should lose the hat.
(The very people who ran me off a message board are now having problems accepting certain opinions? What goes around, comes around.)
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Oprah?
It's not that I have anything in particular against Obama. Truthfully, I prefer him to Hillary. But why on earth does Oprah feel she is qualified to tell us what we need? Or whom we should vote for? The crazy thing is, I'll bet a lot of folks, mostly women, will be influenced by her politics.Good grief.
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